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Understanding Numbers

Numbers can be used to reveal or to conceal.

Numbers are NOT that difficult to understand.
And once you understand them you will be far less likely to be fooled by those who would try to mislead you using numbers...

A key principle is that it is 'Meanings' we are trying to share, and symbols (numbers) are simply used to accomplish that purpose.

Basic Observations:
Numbers do not exist in nature; they are a completely human creation. We create and continue to create numbers to make our lives easier.

Experiment: Take a walk thru the woods or around your urban area; you will never see a '3' or a '5' or a '47', only Individual People, Individual Things, & Individual Events.

Here are some of the purposes for which we all create numbers .

• To be specific.
  Instead of "I have a lot of books for sale", saying "I have 7 novels, 9 coffee table books, & 17 technical books for sale" gives more usable information.
• Or - Take the third right turn after the bridge.
• Or simply: Dinner will be served at 7:00 PM.

There are also many different contexts where we might want to create numbers.

• To nail down a price for buying or selling an item.
• To specify how much vanilla to use in a recipe.
• To specify how much gin to make a dry Martini.

1st Principle:

Every Number, without exception, has 2 parts.

One part is the Absolute number, something like 47.
This makes a distinction between this # and all other #'s.

The other part is the Relative context which gives that number it's meaning.
Is it 47 out of 50, or 47 out of 100, or 47 out of 311,048,000 (the US population) or 47 out of 6,908,105,068 (the world population). This can make a difference.

Without a context, absolute number's have no meaning.

The Percent - An agreed upon universal relative context.
To work with each other, as we must, even tho we come from many diverse backgrounds, and have wildly diverse purposes most of us semi-civilized folk agree upon a few 'standards' strictly to communicate more easily, yet just as accurately, with each other. One such standard is Percents.

What is a Percent? Why would you use it? & When would you use it?
Quite often, strictly as a handy measure, we use Percent "%" as a number out of a hundred, which we treat as "All" whatever All means in the specific context we are discussing.

Sometimes we use a graph, like a pie chart, to show this, where 100% represents the whole pie! 10% is a small piece, 20% a bigger piece, and if your sibling gets more than 50% of a pie, it's time to start screaming "Not Fair".

One group of folk that have finally recognized the need to show both the Relative & Absolute side of numbers with great consistency is the stock market. Over the last decade or so, they now report a stock's change of price over a day, & they almost always say: Up 4 points (i.e. US dollars $), or 5%. This is far more meaningful than just showing only 1 side of the number.

Example of a stocks daily change activity:

	Open	Close	Absolute change	Relative change
Stock #1	$10	$14	$4	40%
Stock #2	$80	$84	$4	5%
Stock #3	$300	$304	$4	1.33%

Given both sides of the change, you have the facts necessary to make a wise decision.

Note:
To save typing, I'll often use these 2 abbreviations :
# = Number and % = Percent.

When people try to impress you with an absolute number, without telling you the number's context, they are often trying to mislead or manipulate you. Likewise when they try to impress you with a relative context, like a percent, without an absolute #, they are also trying not to inform you, but persuade you.

Again:

Without a context, absolute number's have no meaning.

Context is not always spelled out explicitly. It's often assumed, and sometimes deliberately hidden, but more of those sinister uses later...

A bit more about absolute #'s:
How much? requires a measurement unit. Is it 5 inches or 5 centimeters? Not asking that simple question, caused a Mars lander to crash in 1999. We lost a $125 million Mars orbiter because one group of programmers at NASA used inches, while another group used centimeters.


Self Defense against people who would use numerical abuse to mislead you.

Defense against Number - Percent violations against us is simple:

1. If you're given ONLY Absolute Number's ask for the Percent's (%)
   
2. If you're given ONLY Percent's (%) ask for the Absolute Number's (#)
   AND Sample size (more on this later)
   
3. 100% Minus - Very simply, whenever someone quotes a percentage, always calculate the "Rest of the percentage". So when someone says: 25% of Americans are obese, subtract 25% from 100% and finish their sentence with: hence 75% of Americans are NOT obese. By the way those 75% eat at the same fast food chains as the 25%.
   

Advanced Number Techniques:    (In addition to Number/Percentage issues)

• Preparing - Before a lecture, show, interview, political season etc. we can look up #'s we think will be tossed around, for example: Get population #'s & %'s, and whatever is important to you.
  Always go into a discussion with your own Numbers, Percents, & Sources!
  


• Rounding - This allows you to follow a discussion, even when big numbers are used.
  The US population as of Mar 26, 2011 is #:311,048,000.
  Rounding to 300,000,000; 10% is 30,000,000; 1% is 3,000,000; and 50% or half is 150,000,000. This will help spot many blatent lies. Especially during elections...
  
  The world population as of Mar 26, 2011 is #:6,908,105,068. Again rounding to almost 7,000,000,000. 10% is 700,000,000; 1% is 70,000,000; and 50% or half is 3,500,000,000.
  
  Also, again to make it personal, using rounded #'s, US Pop 300,000,000 / World Pop 7,000,000,000 = 4.2857 %. Rounded the US is only 4% of the world's population.
  

Crib Notes:
You might want to print personally meaningful numbers out & keep them near your TV or Internet monitor, or even you pocket or pocketbook. I keep an index card in my shirt pocket. It holds #'s important to me & looks like this:

Index Card:

Population Rounded Nashua, NH 87,555 90,000 New York, New York 8,391,881 8,000,000 United States 311,048,000 300,000,000 World 6,908,105,068 7,000,000,000

Split it by whatever makes personal meaning for you:

(If it helps, go into a spreadsheet like Excel (or Calc) and create some graphics, perhaps pie charts, bar charts, or whatever you like best.) More about that later... It may take an initial effort to get comfortable with spreadsheets, but it's well, well worth the effort.

Mental Math:
Rounding & Calculating Left (more significant) to Right (less significant) much more on this too later...

Bullies:
I want to say here that, while bullies try to intimidate you with distorted numbers, bullies are both Wrong & Scared! You can learn to do quick mental math to defeat their phony arguments.
Also, you need to confront them! See Blog entry: The Complicity of Silence


Start slow, and build your confidence by using experiential world & Personal examples.

Last Updated: Sunday, Wednesday, Apr. 20, 2011 5:34 PM

Comments:

Bob's Blog

Related pages (specific):
This is the 1st of 4 planned articles on Understanding... as part of my Rest of Series...

Related pages (general):

• A mind map of the various Paradigms, Models, related articles etc. is at: Sitemap
• A summary in slide format is at: Overview Slides
• A Narrative Description is at Founder's Narrative

Certified RFR - Rat Free Research:
All my studies have been conducted by Individual humans, with Individual humans, and for Individual humans. No rats have ever been harmed or even inconvenienced.

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